Sole possession of first place in the Big 12 will be on the line in Fort Worth on Saturday as #8 TCU welcomes #17 Kansas State to town.
The Horned Frogs were minutes from becoming one of the unbeatens to fall last Saturday, having trailed 24-7 in the first half. But they forced overtime then went on to win 43-40, with Kendre Miller getting the walk-off score in the second overtime.
This week’s visit from the Wildcats will be TCU’s fourth straight game against a ranked opponent. A win will set them up well to be 9-0 ahead of back-to-back road games next month against Texas and Baylor.
Kansas State wasn’t part of the wild weekend thanks to having a bye week, which might have been a good thing given what happened around the country. The Wildcats will be looking to pick up their third road win in conference play after beating Oklahoma and Iowa State already.
Kansas State Wildcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs Matchup Information and Betting Odds
Matchup: #17 Kansas State Wildcats (5-1, 3-0 Big 12) vs. #8 TCU Horned Frogs (6-0, 3-0 Big 12)
Venue & Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Date: Saturday, October 22, 2022
Game Time: 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time (7:00 p.m. local time)
How to Watch Kansas State vs. TCU: FS1
Kansas State vs. TCU Odds
Game odds are via FanDuel as of Tuesday, October 18 at 9 a.m. Eastern. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.
Kansas State +3.5 (-112)
TCU -3.5 (-108)
Over 58.5 (-110)
Under 58.5 (-110)
Kansas State +138
Kansas State vs. TCU Prediction and Betting Picks
Kansas State vs. TCU Prediction: TCU to win
Kansas State vs. TCU Picks: TCU to cover (Best Value: -3.5 @ -108 at FanDuel) & TCU team total over (not available as of Tuesday, October 18)
While TCU is at the end of a stretch that has seen them beat Oklahoma, Kansas, and Oklahoma State when all three were ranked in the top 20, Kansas State is about to enter their own gauntlet.
Home games against Oklahoma State and Texas and a trip to Baylor will follow this week’s trip to Fort Worth. So, we’re about to find out a lot about the Wildcats
K-State had a close call last time out at Iowa State but survived with a 10-9 win because the Cyclones are a shadow of their former selves offensively this season.
That doesn’t take away from the great job the Wildcats did defensively in Ames or Adrian Martinez’s continued star turn.
Against the Cyclones, Martinez was 12 of 19 passing for a season-high 246 yards and a touchdown and ran for 77 yards on 19 attempts.
Running back Deuce Vaughn ran for only 23 yards on 10 carries and suffered a leg injury against Iowa State, but he will be good to go for Saturday’s game.
After scoring 22 total touchdowns last season, Vaughn hasn’t scored one since the second game of this season.
It’s a team game, of course, and he has certainly been doing his part to help the team win. But the Wildcats are 6-0 over the last two seasons when he scores 2+ touchdowns, which includes last year’s 31-12 win over TCU in Manhattan.
He might need to cross the pylon a time or three for Kansas State to win, because TCU’s offense is in fine form right now.
The Horned Frogs have scored at least 38 points in every game thus far this season, and their season-low for total yards came in their season opener against Colorado, in which Chandler Morris was the starting QB.
Game-by-Game Numbers for TCU
Colorado: 38 points, 413 total yards
Tarleton State: 59 points, 630 yards
SMU: 42 points, 487 total yards
Oklahoma: 55 points, 668 total yards
Kansas: 38 points, 452 total yards
Oklahoma State: 43 points, 510 total yards
TCU started slowly against Oklahoma State, but after scoring on only one of their first five possessions (and turning the ball over on a muffed punt) and falling behind by 17, the Horned Frogs ended up outgaining the Cowboys 510-386.
Max Duggan compiled 300+ total yards and accounted for three or more touchdowns for the third straight game, and Miller’s 102 yards and two scores on 22 carries led a rushing attack that tallied 224 yards on 5.2 yards per carry.
Both teams average well over 200 rushing yards per game, and ground gains will be a big factor on Saturday. But I think two things will tip the game in TCU’s favor in the end.
Martinez is thriving in Manhattan after four seasons at Nebraska, but I am still treating him with the same skepticism I had with Bo Nix at Oregon early on.
If the Wildcats fall behind, can his arm lead them back? Sure, he had to deal with Scott Frost as his head coach for his time in Lincoln, but I am still not sold there, nonetheless.
In his collegiate career, Martinez’s teams are 5-12 when he has to attempt 30 or more passes and 9-18 when he has to throw 25 or more passes. Against Tulane, he was 21 of 31 but for only 150 yards (4.8 yards per attempt).
Also, as I mentioned in my UCLA vs. Oregon prediction, home advantage is proving to be very valuable in these kinds of matchups.
This past week, all six of the ranked vs. ranked matchups were won by the home team. And just like I picked Oregon to take care of UCLA at Autzen Stadium, I’m backing the Horned Frogs to hold serve at home against the Wildcats.