Tom Brady TNF Spotlight: Player Props for Thursday Night Football Week 8

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers will be facing off against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football in Week 8. Our NFL player props spotlight is on TB12 — and we’re not expecting him to have a vintage performance in prime time.
We’ve done it. We’ve finally reached the pinnacle of NFL player props spotlights, with the GOAT himself now coming into our focus for a Week 8 prime-time showdown against the Baltimore Ravens.

So, naturally, we’re going to hammer all the Overs on Tom Brady props… right?

…

No.

After two horribly disappointing weeks, and a generally disappointing season, my Ravens vs. Buccaneers predictions are not looking overly confident on Brady to bounce back Thursday night against an improving Ravens defense.

See just exactly how my free NFL picks are fading TB12 with my Ravens-Buccaneers TNF props, featuring the oldest man in (football) music.

Tom Brady TNF prop picks
Under 280.5 passing yards
Over 25.5 completions
Brady vs Jackson passing yards – Jackson +71.5
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Tom Brady TNF props
Rough seas continue
I mentioned those two ‘horribly disappointing’ weeks Brady has posted, well, it can’t get any worse than putting up 21 total points and 266.5 yards per game against the Panthers and Steelers — also known as the 19th and 29th-ranked teams in terms of passing yards allowed per game.

Now, the Baltimore Ravens also sit 26th, at 261.3 pass yards per contest, but the Ravens have been much better recently, following a shaky start to the season. After giving up 353.5 ypg (including 461 to the Dolphins in Week 2) through the first three games, Baltimore has surrendered just 192.3 ypg over its last four matchups, which included facing Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.

One of the big keys to the Ravens’ improved pass defense has been turning pressure into sacks: Baltimore gets pressure on roughly 28% of quarterback dropbacks this season (per Pro Football Focus), but after turning 16% of those pressures into sacks in the first three games, the Ravens are getting to the QB 33% of the time over their last three games.

Baltimore only sacked Allen once in 12 pressures in Week 4, but the Bills’ star is one of the most mobile and elusive QBs in the league… words that are the polar opposite of the 45-year-old Brady.

TB12 has crumbled under pressure this season, posting a 39.1% completion rate — the same as Justin Fields and worst than notable names such as Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, and Baker Mayfield — while also sitting 40th among QBs in yards per attempt (3.8).

Heck, even when he’s not pressured, Brady is 29th in ypa and 26th in average depth of target, while sitting second in the NFL in total bad throws (behind only Carson Wentz).

All of this doesn’t add up to a QB going Over his passing yards total of 280.5 on Thursday night. It’s also a number he’s topped in just three of seven games this season — with one coming last week against Carolina (he topped it by nine yards and was boosted by a garbage-time 35-yard completion) and one being a 351-yard effort against Kansas City in Week 4, when he also had a pure pass game script after his team fell behind 21-3.

With Baltimore’s pass rush (and pass defense) upping its play, plus the Ravens’ run-heavy approach likely chewing into the clock and limiting Brady’s overall pass attempts, I’m banking on another disappointing night for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ signal-caller on Thursday.

Tom Brady TNF Spotlight: Player Props for Thursday Night Football Week 8

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Tom Brady TNF Spotlight: Player Props for Thursday Night Football Week 8

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